From Hydrological Modeling to Highland Urbanism: Reconstructing Water Systems in Early Medieval Central Asia

Water has long been central to urbanism, with archaeological models centered on lowland river valleys and oases where well-established irrigation systems sustained dense populations and fostered complex urban systems for at least 5,000 years. Highland regions, by contrast, remain largely overlooked, leaving major gaps in understanding how cities adapted to high-altitude mountain environments with limited access to water. This paper examines the hydrological landscape of Tugunbulak (6th-11th c. CE), a medieval highland city situated at approximately 2,000 m in the Malguzar Mountains of Uzbekistan and often identified with the city of Marsmanda described in 10th-century Arabic sources. Paleoclimate records suggest that this city likely experienced relatively cooler and wetter conditions during the earlier phase of occupation, followed by drier and warmer conditions toward the later phase. Integrating high-resolution drone lidar and satellite imagery, this presentation aims to reconstruct both natural hydrology and engineered water infrastructure. To address this, seasonal water availability is modeled quantitatively and qualitatively to establish a baseline water supply and compared with estimated urban water demand to assess when and where engineered water infrastructures would have been necessary. Flow-path modeling, then, identifies hydrological anomalies that may indicate artificial modifications such as canals, diversions, or drainage systems. By applying computational hydrological modeling as non-textual evidence, this case study broadens the discussion of urbanism and environmental adaptation in pre-modern Eurasia.