"As Low a Political Profile as Possible": Climate Governance during the Carter Administration

Modern American society during the latter third of the 20^thcentury increasingly relied on the science of forecasting to protect against the vagaries of future events.  Scientists from a range of disciplines became what some saw as society’s new prophets, allowing them a certain freedom to explore the meanings, methods, and implications of a range of future-telling activities – from forecasting and scenario-building to predictions and projections.  While it seems apparent from initial inspection that climate scientists were not a part of what scholars have called the “Futurology/Futures Movement” of the 1970s, climate scientists were especially aware of the need to think critically about how to legitimately incorporate future-telling into their professional activities and identities during the 1960s and 70s.  How, many atmospheric scientists inquired, can they be useful to society, and how did one adequately sustain the uncertain science of forecasting while still appealing to the practical needs of policymakers who preferred certainty before making important decisions?

This talk explores the ethics and value-systems involved when climate scientists discussed future-telling during a time of increased anxiety over the consequences of human and industrial activities (1960s-early 1980s).  Of particular concern for many was to balance their public claims regarding the importance consequences of fossil fuels, while not coming off as “alarmists” who tended to exaggerate the future effects of humankind’s industrial activities for political expediency.  “Watchful vigilance is not,” said one climate scientist, “a license to ‘cry wolf’ continuously.”  That tension between watchful vigilance and crying wolf, I will argue, was a consequence of shifting value-systems as climate scientists struggled with the meaning and legitimacy of forecasting future climate in an age where their decisions and knowledge were increasingly important for the welfare of future citizens.