The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and the Gamble over Earth’s Future

In 1980, Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, famous for his 1968 book The Population Bomb, made a notorious bet over mineral prices with University of Illinois economist Julian Simon.  Ehrlich agreed to bet Simon that the cost of chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten would increase in the next decade.  It was a simple $1,000 wager: five minerals, ten years, prices up or down.  At the same time, the bet stood for much more-- a proxy for their competing visions of the future.  Ehrlich argued that overpopulation would lead inexorably to overconsumption, resource shortages, and famine.  Simon countered that flexible markets and new technologies would allow societies to adapt and improve human welfare.

Simon and Ehrlich represented two poles in the bitter contest over the future that helped define the 1970s.  Ehrlich’s dire predictions underlay the era’s new environmental consciousness, while Simon’s increasing skepticism helped fuel a conservative backlash against federal regulatory expansion.   I interpret their confrontation in the context of political battles over energy policies and environmental regulation.   By examining the relationship between modern environmentalism and broader political conflicts, including the 1980 contest between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter, we can better understand how disputes over science and the environment have contributed to growing partisanship and political polarization in the United States, and also have frustrated efforts to address the challenge of global climate change.