American Efforts to Navigate the Changing Regional Order in the Middle East

The presentation situates the current discussion about American policy towards the Middle East within the ongoing debate about if we are witnessing the “end of the American era in the Middle East.” It argues the Obama administration’s response to 2010-12 Arab uprisings have sought a redefinition of the American rationale for its continuing, if not expanding, diplomatic and military presence in the region.  I show how the American recognition of an Arab democratic imaginary has allowed the US and Europe to speak about the possible incorporation of the Arab world in a US-led liberal international order defined by economic independence and mutual security arrangements and regulated by global (or rather “Western-dominated”) norms and international institutions. I argue that shifts in US policy have largely been in response to political change generated by local social and political forces who largely reject external efforts to define the regional order.

The presentation suggests that several emerging forces are pushing to shape the development of a multi-actor, though possibly more unstable, regional system in the Middle East. I conclude that we may be witnessing a return to an era like the 1950s, when public opinion and popular mobilization can shape the foreign policy behavior of states. In such a system, the US will be less willing to rely on soft power as it faces more rivals in the regional contest over heart and minds and visions of the future. The US will likely again have to choose if it wants influence gained through persuasion and diplomacy or forgo such influence in a effort to seek control through projecting military power.